Corona-zona

Until now, this blog has provided an email subscription via Feedburner, which is  owned by Google. Google has a habit of producing very useful applications and getting lots of people to use them, and then pulling the plug, suddenly and for no apparent reason.  I remember how much I loved Google Desktop which could find anything anywhere on my computer (including in email) in seconds.  I have still not forgiven Google for discontinuing that and leaving me hanging with the crappy search capability that is Windows Explorer. Anyway, they are now doing the same for Feedburner. Fortunately, unlike Google Desktop there are good alternatives, and I have chosen follow.it  as the replacement for this blog. You can subscribe using the box at the left.  Those of you already subscribed should have been moved over automatically.  You can use this link to change some subscription options. Image by  Gerd Altmann  from  Pixabay  

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers for the week just ended: There are worrisome red numbers in the one-week change column. Maricopa county is up not quite one percent, and we've seen temporary increases like that before. But combined with a 1.6% increase statewide and a 4% increase in positive test percentage, and an increase in hospitalizations, this may be something to worry about. In fact, new cases have been trending up statewide for the last two weeks, as indicated by the trend line in this graph (data from ASU Biodesign Dashboard ): The increase could be due to increasing presence of the Delta variant, which as I noted yesterday is increasing fast in Arizona. To help keep track of this nastier form of the bug, I have added a new row to the weekly stats to track it.   One caveat is that the GISAID database, where the variant data comes from, is (as far as I know) not automatically updated. Organizations doing the sequencing have to upload the data and it make take time t

  Recently I blogged about the nastiness of the Delta variant (first detected in India). At the time it was just getting a foothold in the U.S. but was causing problems in the highly vaccinated UK. Now it's doing the same in another highly vaccinated country, Israel. The Wall Street Journal just reported that in that country  half of infections  with Delta are among vaccinated adults. The WHO has recommended that fully vaccinated adults continue to wear masks because of the variant. Delta is also continuing to increase prevalence in the U.S., and President Biden has emphasized its danger to unvaccinated people.   Existing vaccines are effective against Delta . However, no vaccine is 100% effective and there are going to be so-called "breakthrough" cases. Though some of those people (about 1% according to a report I saw) will die, infections in vaccinated people are mostly mild or asymptomatic. That's good for the smart people who got vaccinated, but they can still

  The other day, I did a post criticizing Gov. Doug Ducey's executive order promoting public illness at state funded universities and community colleges.  However, I missed a detail that moves the order into a category beyond asinine.  As I noted before, the order says schools can't require proof of vaccination, and they can't require people to wear masks. But I missed that it also bans requiring testing for students and employees.   In other words, Ducey is prohibiting colleges and universities from taking any mitigation steps whatsoever .  Schools can't require vaccinations, the one thing that would make masks and testing unnecessary.  They also can't require masks, which would help prevent infected people from spreading the virus in poorly ventilated classrooms.  But they also can't test to identify infected people and keep them away from people who are uninfected.  That's straight-up reckless . Testing doesn't threaten anyone's "freedom.&qu

  As I mentioned in Sunday's numbers update , I heard media reports that Arizona had a "spike" in new cases on Saturday the 19th.  That didn't affect the averages I was posting for the past week, so I wondered what they were talking about. It seems the origin of this was an AP wire story : "Arizona Department of Health Services officials reported 641 new cases and 16 deaths Saturday. It was the highest single-day case number since June 2."  It also said Arizona reported 385 cases the next day. No hyperbole there, just a routine report on numbers from the state. Then Joseph Choi at  The Hill   picked up this story and turned the number into a "spike" and implied a reversal of fortune for State 48:  Arizona recorded a small spike in coronavirus cases this past week when it recorded more than 600 new cases on Saturday, marking a sudden increase in what has been a downward trend in cases for the state. Cases in Arizona have been consistently dropping

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers for the week just ended: All the numbers are pointed in the right direction. I did hear someone say on NPR local news today that there was some kind of increase, but it's not showing up here.  I will keep an eye on it this week. Here is the accelerometer: Even though the percentage increases are still small, we have at least accelerated two weeks in a row now.  Practically half of us have received one dose now, but we're still way behind the national average.

I haven't done an update post for some time, so here are a few items of interest. An Epidemic of Resignations I've recently blogged about how people are not all that excited about going back to work.  Also that people who would have normally resigned in 2020 went into a holding pattern and could be expected to resign en masse .   Well it seems to be happening . People quit their jobs at a rate of 2.7% in April.  That's an all time record. Delta "Promoted" to Variant of Concern Earlier this month I blogged about the Delta variant .  It's more contagious and produces more serious disease, and is causing particular problems in the UK. Earlier this week the CDC reclassified it as a "variant of concern." That same story says that as of Sunday, it accounted for about 10.3% of cases in the US.  Yesterday I checked the GISAID database for Arizona. Here delta accounts for just 6.86% of the sequences, so less than the national average. But public health of

The other night, the Late Show re-ran an interview Stephen Colbert did with Sanjay Gupta in mid-March 2020, just as the Apocalypse was getting started. They had just eliminated the audience (in favor of a handful if staffers) and the following week they moved the show to Colbert's home. Gupta was Colbert's last guest before the shutdown. What is striking about the interview is what Gupta thought about the pandemic at the time.  Here's a review of the claims he made and what we know in hindsight. "For the majority of people, this is not something that's going to make them tremendously ill, this coronavirus. It might make them sick for a few days but they're likely to recover."  True .  According to research , 81% of people have mild disease, 14% have severe disease, and 5% have critical disease. "We have identified who the vulnerable population is here. It is elderly people." True . According to figures from Our World in Data there is a power cu

  [Hey...been off for a couple days due to work demands. I had a choice of what to post about today, but I'd be remiss if I didn't cover this particular topic.] Yesterday the Arizona governor dropped another Ducey, signing an order prohibiting universities from mandating vaccines or masks. You can't require people to be vaccinated, and you can't require those that aren't (or can't be) to wear masks to prevent them from catching or spreading disease.  This is—straight up—an order to promote public illness. It's like when Ducey decided in spring 2020 to ban local government mask mandates, only to change his mind when Arizona became the worst place in the world for COVID-19. If we needed masks to prevent illness then, why are they bad now? Of course, Ducey says this is all about individual freedom. But it's not just about individuals. If you don't get vaccinated and also don't wear a mask, you are endangering not only yourself but others around yo

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers for the week just ended: It's a little concerning that Maricopa County has had an increase of almost 1.5 cases per 100K over the last week. We'll see if it continues next week. The statewide rate increased only fractionally, and the positive test percentage is essentially unchanged.  All the other numbers look good. Here's the vaccination accelerometer: There was more gain than last week, but it's still less than one percent. At this rate it will take us until September to get 50% fully vaccinated, and that assumes we can continue at this slow pace that long. Top Image by  Shutterbug75  from  Pixabay

Over the last year, bad behavior in public has become an epidemic in its own right.  Or so it seems. The more well-known incidents are pandemic-adjacent and focus on masks.  There is the time when an Arizona "karen" wearing a $40,000 Rolex watch trashed a mask display at a Target. These mask-hole events have become so common that retailers are providing training to employees on dealing with them. And it's not just in retail establishments. Last month an unruly passenger punched a flight attendant and knocked out two teeth in a confrontation over a mask. She's getting a $52,000 fine.   But that is not the only such case. This year alone, there have been 2500 unruly passenger incidents , 1900 of which were mask-related. Through May, 394 of these were potential violations of the law.  That's more than twice the number observed in the entire year for both 2020 and 2019. The thing is, it's not just pandemic-adjacent. There is also an rash of bad behavior by fan

As anyone who reads this blog knows, I am a big proponent of getting vaccinated against the virus. I did so myself at the soonest possible opportunity. But there remains a too-large portion of the population that is choosing not to be vaccinated. Unless many of them can be persuaded, this group will prevent us from achieving population immunity.  I have a proposal for persuading them that I've mentioned in passing before. This post is to flesh it out. First, are people resisting the vaccine for good reasons?  According to some researchers I know who recently completed a nationwide survey, the most common objections of never-vaxxers are as follows: They worry that vaccines are not safe . This is an unreasonable belief . In the U.S., 305,687,618 doses of the vaccines have been administered. If there were something really dangerous about the shots, we'd know it by now. Nobody—except maybe a few people who developed blood clots after taking the J&J vaccine—has died from being

  As regular readers know, there has been quite a bit of coverage on this blog about mask effectiveness. It forced me to learn about aerosols and how they move around a room and spread the virus. On of the casualties of that learning has been my innocence/naivete regarding how much exhaust from other humans I probably have always breathed in. This new study demonstrates how even normal breathing creates a "saliva plume" that travels some distance from the breather.   The study concludes that "normal breathing indoors without a mask can transport saliva droplets capable of carrying virus particles to a distance of 2.2 meters, or 7.2 feet, in a matter of 90 seconds." Eeww.  That means if you're sitting next to someone who is not masked on a plane, or within seven feet of someone at a bar or restaurant, and they are merely breathing, you're going to be inhaling stuff from their "saliva plume." If that plume happens to include enough SARS-CoV-2 parti

  The delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, formerly known as the India variant, is in the process of taking over.  It is estimated to be causing 60% of infections in the UK, and leading to surges in some areas. Today it was reported that cases are up 74% over the last week. The setback is causing leaders there to ask whether they should  reconsider their plans for reopening the country.  UK health officials estimate that delta is 40% more transmissible than the alpha variant (formerly UK  variant). If memory serves alpha is itself estimated to be 50% more transmissible than the garden-variety virus. So I suppose that would make delta 70% more transmissible than the garden variety? Not only that but it causes nastier disease. Physicians in India are reporting cases of unusual symptoms like hearing impairment, severe gastric upsets, and blood clots leading to gangrene. Data from the UK suggest it's also more likely to lead to hospitalization. Now the variant is making its way to other co

Yesterday I heard—on some media source—the phrase "hot vax summer." I had no idea what this meant, so I looked it up.  Turns out it is a pop culture reference to people who've been vaccinated, have had unwanted hair removed, and are ready for some fun. Such people refer to themselves as "vaxxed and waxed." Apparently, this has been  declared  the official meme/theme of summer 2021 by whomever decides these things.  One Twitter user tweeted "This lady on the plane said 'vaxxed and waxed, baby, I'm ready for some action on this trip.' and that should be everybody's vibe this summer."  Another tweeted "We’re both vaxed and waxed... and ready to have sax". Frankly I'm shocked that I did not know about this sooner! As everybody knows, not only do I have my finger on the pulse of the pandemic but I am also fount of knowledge about all aspects of popular culture. Apparently, not everyone gets the meme. Neil Irwin of the NYT ha

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers for the week just ended: Infection rates are looking good!  After the slight rise last week I was worried we might be starting another surge, because June is when things became so bad last year.  But this week things are headed in the right direction by non-fractional amounts.  There are more s-gene dropouts, so the UK variant (or alpha or beta, or whatever they're calling it now) is more prevalent.  Perhaps that's why hospital beds are up modestly. The vaccination accelerometer, on the other hand does not look so good: This week exceeded last week by less than half a percent for both measures. This is worrisome because we don't yet have half the population receiving one shot, and only one-third are fully vaccinated.  It's further evidence of a flattening curve . Top Image by  Shutterbug75  from  Pixabay

  China is distributing Sinovac and other inoculants widely as part of its vaccine diplomacy effort. It is able to ship vaccines because it has been successful in controlling its own infection rates. So it can afford to capitalize on goodwill it would gain for helping other countries. Meanwhile the West hoards vaccine for its own citizens. But the diplomatic effort may not be going so well.  About a two months ago Corona-zona Senior Southeast Asia correspondent PBR had a post about how branding for China's vaccines, particularly Sinovac, is not working out very well in Asia. People openly question China's motives and especially the vaccines' effectiveness.  As for the latter, there is widespread recognition that the vaccines don't work as well as their Western counterparts. A Chinese official actually  said this out-loud about a month ago. I'm surprised I haven't heard that he's been disappeared by now. The latest hit to China's efforts is a realizat

Not quite a month ago, I had a post about people who were queasy about going back to the office. The reasons ranged from growing accustomed to working from home, to distrust of all institutions, to fear of COVIDiot coworkers. Another frequent topic in this blog is shortages. There have been continuing problems with supply chains , particularly those supplying microchips needed to build everything from cars to appliances. There have been more bizarre and temporary shortages of things like ketchup packets and garden gnomes . Now the big issue is worker shortages . The Wall Street Journal calls it the worst ever  (possible paywall) such shortage. Conservative governors are blaming the enhanced unemployment benefits passed as part of pandemic relief.  Half of states are cancelling the extra $300 per month, which leaders they think are keeping people form returning to work. But a study by the Fed says concludes that the payments are not a major driver of the worker shortage. The author

Today this post came across my news feed from The Guardian . In a nutshell, it says, first, that rural Northern California is full of COVIDiots. That's something I don't doubt and the article presents lots of evidence.  But second, it implies that because of this the county has an alarming new case rate:  After largely avoiding the worst of the pandemic, a block of far northern California counties now leads the state with nearly 40 cases per 100,000 residents over the past week, according to statistics maintained by the Los Angeles Times. Tehama county ranked the highest in the LA Times case ratings with 139 cases per 100,000 residents. Meanwhile 10 of the 21 total Covid deaths in nearby Siskiyou county have occurred since the beginning of May. If true that's pretty alarming, so I decided to investigate. Doing so made me wonder if  The Guardian  understands the numbers it is reporting. As noted previously on this blog, there are wrong numbers and right numbers to  use whe

  About a month ago, Pfizer applied for full authorization from the FDA. Today, Moderna has done the same . Now begins an apparently months-long wait for the FDA to make up its mind whether the vaccines are safe. These are the same vaccines that have been safely administered to Americans 294 million times (and counting) under an emergency use authorization (EUA). Why months?  Apparently the process involves pouring over clinical trial results to find any indication of untoward side-effects. Manufacturing processes need to be scrutinized. Lawyers must negotiate over what can go on the label (lawyers always gum up the works; that's how they make money). The process is designed for a new vaccine that has only been tested in clinical trials. It makes sense that in that case you would need to scrutinize that trials data. You would need to check out the manufacturing details because it's a new process. and so on. But in the present circumstances the process seems ridiculous. If th