Corona-zona

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Everything is looking good, except a 29% increase in COVID-19 hospital beds. That is still within what has been normal variation since the beginning of the year, so nothing to get too excited about.  Deaths are up, but those numbers from from AzHDS, which  as we know  does not have reliable reporting practices. Given all of this, and given that the COVID-19 public health emergency ended yesterday , this is a good time to end these updates and retire the blog. I will continue to keep an eye on numbers and restart if it looks like a new wave is brewing, but I hope that is not necessary. Some of you have posted comments on the AZ Coronavirus  subreddit  saying you found these updates helpful for knowing when to take precautions. I'm happy to know this, because it has taken some work!   If you want to monitor things on your own going forward...

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Everything is looking pretty good. Some of the wastewater signals are up, but all of the direct indicators are down. That 20% increase in state cases last week turned into a 17% decrease this week so it was indeed another reporting anomaly. Maricopa County didn't update today like usual so those numbers are from last Friday. Likewise the Pima County wastewater numbers are stale.

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: AzDHS case numbers are 17.5% higher than last week. But given that everything else shows a decrease, I will go out on a limb and say this is probably another reporting snafu where they found a bunch of old cases and threw them in this week's hopper. I suspected the same was true for deaths last week, which spiked by 125%. Sure enough, they decreased by 70% this week and are back down to the same place they have been for quite some time. It's hard to understand why they do this. The whole point of weekly reporting is to get an idea of what is happening in the short term. Throwing in old cases does nothing but generate noise.  The only other news is that, like last week, Tempe again did not maintain its ten day wastewater reporting lag. If we're looking at a consistent 17 day lag now, what's the point in publishing it at all? We don't need to know what condi...

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Last week I was a little concerned we might be getting into something again because everything was up. But this week we're back to a mix of small increases and small decreases.  The exception to that is deaths, which are up a lot. Most likely, though, this is due to AzDHS reporting anomalies as we have seen it before. Once again Tempe has failed to update their wastewater dashboard. I should be able to get the missing data next time.

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Well gee, I was really enjoying the sea of green last week. Now it looks like a red tide! Nothing to get alarmed about as a one-week change. None of the changes are big except Tempe and Yavapai wastewater.  That kink at the end of the case graph is a little concerning. We'll see what happens next week. Previous Posts You May Have Missed: New "Arcturus" COVID-19 Strain Surging in India: Here We Go Again?

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Very nice looking numbers this week, y'all! Everything down except a couple wastewater signals and a small increase in deaths over the month.  Cases appear to be stabilizing at a floor that has been established over the last year. Of course this is the time last year where we experienced those floor rates only to begin a pretty good climb in April. We shall see what happens.

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Another week without much to get excited about. Except for Yavapai County wastewater, the values that increased look like a large percentage increase but were based on a small number from last week to begin with.  Real levels remain low for everything. This is especially obvious when comparing them to the maximums I've recorded since the winter/spring 2022 wave.

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Well these are pretty good looking numbers. Everything is down except hospital beds over four weeks (it is down over a week though) and Yavapai County wastewater. Not sure what's going on up in the Prescott area. They have almost tripled wastewater readings over the last month, and they are almost triple the next highest county (Pima).  As I've noted before, there are a lot of COVIDiots up there. Even at the height of the pandemic few people wore masks. Also their overall vaccination rates are around 10% lower than Maricopa County. 

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Things look pretty good this week. Cases and deaths are lower. Things that are up are only up a little. The only exception to this is Yavapai County wastewater.  A couple weeks ago I was worried about another upward trend, but I don't see much evidence of it at this point. Overall it looks like the numbers are dithering around some kind of floor, as can be seen in the case graph. Good numbers to get for parents going into spring break!

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Welp, remember last week's report when the thinking was the huge jump in cases was due to a dump of stale data from 2022?  It was, but not completely.  For the case graph this week I replaced last week's anomalous value with the average of this week and two weeks ago (this is called imputation ). As you can see, there is an upward trend so there were likely some "real" increased cases last week.  Hospital beds are up, as are almost all the wastewater readings. So I'm guessing that there is some sort of increase going on. Increases are still modest week-over-week. We will have to see if it gains steam next week before we think about declaring a new wave. Previous posts you may have missed: Did SARS-CoV-2 Leak from a Chinese Lab? Maybe, Maybe Not Virus Coming-in on International Flights Says Captain Obvious Bret Stephens Misrepresents Study to Claim Anti-...

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Well! Remember a couple of weeks ago when I wondered whether Superbowl visitors would bring in a new wave of COVID-19? It looks like we could have an answer, if the case numbers are to be trusted. As it turns out, they are not to be trusted. I checked with Will Humble who knows about these things. He says almost all the new cases this week are due to a dump of stale data from 2022. I really don't understand this. What is the point of reporting these cases if they're not current?!  Anyway, we will find out if this was an anomaly next week. Previous posts you may have missed: Bret Stephens Misrepresents Study to Claim Anti-maskers are Owed an Apology Extracts of Two Plants Shown to Block SARS-CoV-2 Spike Protein Mechanism

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Most numbers are up and the changes average +20%. These are increases are small in absolute terms because they are a percent increase on an already-small number. Nonetheless we'd prefer to see the numbers going in the other direction. The good news is that hospitalizations are continuing a downtrend. That is our most reliable indicator of serious illness.  I don't know what is going on with Tempe. Maybe they're updating their wastewater numbers only every other week now? January 29 was the latest data both last week and this week. I have reset the scale of the y-axis on the case graph to a more reasonable range now that the past year no longer includes the January 2022 peak. We are at approximately the same lows as we saw last April and October. At those times the line did not stay flat for as long as it has recently. Previous posts you may have missed: An...

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Looks like continued smooth sailing for Superbowl week. Hope the visitors don't bring in a ton of new cases. The only things up are cases at the state level, and Yavapai and Tempe wastewater levels. The first two of those are trivial.  Tempe is up 30% but that is one week after it plunged by almost 80%. I didn't have last week's numbers last week because Tempe is becoming a little inconsistent in when readings are posted. Previous posts you may have missed: The Pandemic is One Reason for High Job Vacancies

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: All numbers are down. I think this is the first time that has happened since I started doing these summaries two years ago. Enjoy the green! The only other notes are about wastewater. It looks like Tempe has changed its reporting to have a longer lag. There was no update last week, and the update that is there now is for the week that would normally have been reported then. I also noticed that BioBot, where I get the county wastewater data, is reporting nationwide average wastewater levels. For Jan 25 (the date of the data reported above) the figure was 704. So our levels are 1/3 to 1/2 of what they are nationwide.

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Cases at both the Maricopa County and statewide levels are up a little. The percentage increases look large but that's because the increase is calculated against a very small number to begin with. Both measures are up by only about 1.5 per 100K.  Death rates are up a  little over the week,  but they are level over a month. Hospital beds continues to decline, and I view that as the most valid indicator of serious infections. Most of the wastewater signals are down. Tempe did not report new data this week for some reason.  So is this it, or are we in for another surge based on new variants? After not updating over the holidays, Lim Lab has brought  their AZ variants page  up to January 9.  True to predictions, a number of sons-of-omicron are taking over. The one virologists have been fretting about the most , XBB.1.5, accounted for just ov...

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Apologies for the delay posting this...life got the better of me on Thursday. But hey, it's a pleasure to make this report today even if I'm a little tardy. Every measure i s down over a week and a month except for one fly in the ointment: Deaths. I can't remember the last time the number were so green. The death rate, too, is down over a week, but it's up 17% over the month. As noted here many times before, my understanding is that due to AzDHS sloppy reporting practices there is no telling when these deaths happened.  One other note: Check out the difference in the case graph between the between the right end (today) and the left end (one year ago). Then, we were at the peak of the Omicron wave. What a difference a year makes! Previous posts you may have missed: Anti-vaxxer Asshattery Continues: No Lie Too Big Public Health Officials: XBB.1.5 is Comin' to...

  Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday: Case counts increased by about a fifth for both Maricopa County and the state. Deaths are up by almost 50% but are still fractional and nowhere near the 2022 high. Hospital beds continues its downward trend. As for wastewater signals the larges is in Yavapai County. Pima county is up a little. Everywhere else is down form 10% to 50%. Previous posts you may have missed: Public Health Officials: XBB.1.5 is Comin' to Getcha!