AZ Pandemic Numbers Summary for the Seven Days Ending January 25: Small Increases in Some Measures

 


Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending Wednesday:



Cases at both the Maricopa County and statewide levels are up a little. The percentage increases look large but that's because the increase is calculated against a very small number to begin with. Both measures are up by only about 1.5 per 100K. 

Death rates are up a  little over the week,  but they are level over a month. Hospital beds continues to decline, and I view that as the most valid indicator of serious infections.

Most of the wastewater signals are down. Tempe did not report new data this week for some reason. 

So is this it, or are we in for another surge based on new variants? After not updating over the holidays, Lim Lab has brought their AZ variants page up to January 9. 

True to predictions, a number of sons-of-omicron are taking over. The one virologists have been fretting about the most, XBB.1.5, accounted for just over 41% of cases earlier this month, and appears to be gathering steam. 

Another source of variants data is biobot, which publishes the county-level wastewater data I report. All the counties report variant data except Mohave. Here is what they currently show:


I'm not sure (and they don't explain) whether they test for other variants. This chart includes XBB, which was only present in 5.6% of samples from Lim Lab, and doesn't show XBB.1.5 at all (unless it's subsumed under XBB). 

On the other hand these data show BQ.1 in an average 73% of samples, while Lim Lab shows it at 17%. There is also a disagreement about BA.5, with an average 21% in wastewater but only 17% in Lim Lab data. 

Of the two, I would put more stock in the wastewater data. Lim Lab gets its sequences from PCR tests that people turn in. Those have all the same problems as cases rates, including self-selected samples, decreasing data with increased use of home tests, and so on. Wastewater is a passive method that is completely anonymous and doesn't require cooperation of the subjects (other than doing what comes naturally). 

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