AZ Pandemic Numbers Summary for the Seven Days Ending September 7: Mixed Picture

 

Image: Steampunk Computer Crunching Numbers by Dall-E

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending yesterday:



It's a bit of a mixed picture this week. One thing is that the four-week changes are all in the right direction and not small. The weekly stat that looks the best is the statewide case rate, which fell by more than half. 

At one time I'd have gotten very excited about that. But as I have mentioned many times before, case rates are no longer considered good indicators of conditions in the community because so many people are doing at-home tests that never get reported, and federal programs for free testing have ended.

I have no case rate for Maricopa County. The dashboard where they report data says "The requested URL was rejected. Please consult with your administrator." I have reported the problem and will update this post if I find it has been fixed.

Otherwise, new deaths dropped by a decent amount. On the other hand, COVID-19 hospital beds are up by around 7% compared to last week. 

@willhumble_az on Twitter reports an analysis by @Jamal___James showing that after peaking in mid-July, hospitalizations have been steadily going down until about a week ago. He says they are "leveling off" but the graph looks to me like it could also be the beginning of an upward trend. We should know in another couple of weeks.

Wastewater signals are mixed. They are down a little in Pima County but up by more than 25% in Yavapai and Mohave counties.  

Once again, we are missing wastewater data this week from Tempe. The office that produces the dashboard has an Interim Director. Not sure how long he has been there, but if he's recently appointed turnover could account for the unreliability of the dashboard in recent weeks. As with Maricopa County cases, I will update the table if data becomes available.

Don't forget to get your new Omicron-adapted vaccine booster. I have an appointment to get jabbed tomorrow!

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