AZ Pandemic Numbers Summary for the Seven Days Ending July 13: Could the Latest Surge be Moderating?

 

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending yesterday:



Three weeks ago the summary showed some signs that the wave might be moderating, only to have the numbers bounce right back the next week. This week it looks like things might be moderating again. Will they bounce back next week?

Case rates are down by a quarter in the state and 7.5% in Maricopa County. As we know by now these numbers are probably not reliable because of closing of free testing programs and use of home tests. Some experts estimate cases are being undercounted by 10X.

Another good sign is that wastewater signals are down everywhere expect Mohave County (where they set a new record). Also for the first time since spring we are seeing reductions over a four weeks in many of the measures.  

Hospitalizations and deaths are up by 4%-5% but those are lagging indicators, and the increases aren't huge.

All this as variants BA.4 and BA.5 are accounting for over 70% of cases in Arizona. BA.5 was dubbed the worst variant yet  in a CNN article today. That sounds a little hyperbolic; my memory is that Delta was much more likely to cause hospitalizations and deaths. 

But BA.5 it's definitely worst in terms of infectiousness. I heard a virologist or epidemiologist say on NPR the other day (sorry, can't find the link) that BA.5 is so contagious you could easily get infected during a short elevator ride with another infected person if you are not well-masked. So stay well-masked!

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