AZ Pandemic Numbers for the Week Ending January 22: Could We Be Peaking?

 

Here is the Arizona pandemic numbers summary and new cases seven-day average chart for the week just ended:



Compared to last week, there are some things to like here. Statewide new cases are down (though Maricopa County cases are up). This is reflected in the statewide seven-day average graph, which shows signs of leveling off.

Normally I wouldn't be so eager to call a possible peak, but it has been happening elsewhere, especially in the Eastern U.S. Here is the latest Twitter thread from virologist Trevor Bedford (who I've linked before) from last Wednesday.  

Hi first chart shows that cases peaked in the U.S. overall a week ago. His second chart shows that in most states west of the Mississippi, including Arizona, the peak hasn't arrived yet. But he is analyzing  data is from a week ago, so maybe the above chart really is signaling a peak. We can only hope.

Deaths per 100K are down fractionally both in the state and Maricopa County, but again those lag infections. Hospital usage—mainly by COVIDiots who refuse to get vaccinated—is up again over the last week.

Speaking of deaths and beds, below are the dual-axis graphs for those. Deaths are level or tracking down despite rising cases. The Omicron wave is four weeks old now. If the conventional wisdom that there is a three-week lag for deaths is valid, we should be seeing rising deaths by now, but we're not.   

The hospital beds trend is looking level-ish or possibly going down over the last three weeks too. Let's hope this is the light at the end of the tunnel!


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