Is Another COVID-19 Wave Coming?

 

For some time now, public health officials in the U.S. have been worried about a another wave of COVID-19. Their concern is based on two things.  

First, infections are down from the holiday surge. U.S. vaccination rates accelerating, with the U.S. approaching one-third of its population having at least one vaccination. So of course marshmallow-eating state officials are recklessly removing mitigation measures despite infection rates as high as the peak of the summer surge. They're taking their foot off the brake just when it looks like we might have virus beat. Now people are crowding into Las Vegas and the beaches in Florida.  

Second, there are new variants popping up all over the place that appear to make the virus more contagious and virulent. There are mixed messages about whether these variants are also better able to evade immune responses from previous infections or vaccinations. Some reports say they are, with others saying they're not. It's a confusing situation that probably indicates that we just don't know what is going on. But the possibility that variants are evading immune responses is frightening and threatens to set us back by months. 

As an illustration, right now there is a new wave of infections in Europe, fueled by the variants. Dr. Anthony says that Europe infections tend to lead U.S. infections by a week or two, so we could be seeing increases soon. 

But as I reported yesterday, new cases are still declining in Arizona, and there is no sign yet of an increase yet. The situation is similar nationally. Here is the U.S. new cases curve from the CDC, downloaded yesterday (red line is a 7-day average):

There is some weirdness over the last week, including an outlier on March 8, but the plateau in new cases seems to be holding. If Fauci is right, that could begin to change soon.

The wildcard here is vaccine effectiveness. According to Our World in Data, as of last Friday the U.S. had 30.55 out of every 100 people receiving at least one vaccine dose. That close to three times the rate of 10.92 in the EU. 

If the vaccines really are effective against the variants, this could save us another plunge into darkness. Here's hoping so.

Header Image by Roger Mosley from Pixabay 

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