AZ Pandemic Numbers Summary for the Seven Days Ending October 12: Large Decreases on Almost Every Measure

 

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending yesterday:



These numbers look pretty good! There are large decreases in many measures, and decreases in all the others except two.

One dark spot is deaths, which increased about 36%. As mentioned before, deaths are a lagging indicator. While they are terrible for the people who suffer them and their families, an increase like this isn't very worrisome for the population at large, especially since they are a tiny fraction of the high water mark.

Another increase is in the Maricopa County wastewater signal. But that is against a large decrease in the Tempe wastewater signal, so I suppose the infections must be coming from other parts of the Valley.

Checking Lim Lab for variants detected in Arizona, we find zero samples that were positive for the variant I have been worrying about, (BA.2.75). For the last report 10 days ago, all the cases were  BA.4 and BA.5, both of which are targeted by the new bivalent vaccine.

If the disappearance of BA.2.75 is true, that's great news. I have to wonder if it's accurate though, because prior reports have it steadily increasing. Seems unlikely that it would just suddenly disappear. We'll have to see next week.

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