AZ Pandemic Numbers Summary for the Seven Days Ending May 18: Welcome to Wave Four

Ugh, COVID-19 On Indefinite Repeat?

 

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending yesterday:



A combination of wishful thinking and the desire to avoid being alarmist have so far kept me from saying we're in a fourth wave. But if it walks like a duck...

This is the third week in a row we've seen week-over-week increases in cases and in the early warning indicators (positive tests and wastewater). Things I'm not happy to see are that, relative to the previous week's values: 

  • Maricopa county cases have increased by 36%
  • Statewide cases have increased by 31%
  • Pima wastewater has increased 26%
  • Yavapai wastewater has increased 94% and has set a new 2022 record
  • Tempe wastewater is up a whopping 209%.

Positive tests are only up a little, but up nonetheless. Public health officials caution that so many people are relying on home tests that are not reported, cases counts are significantly underestimated. 

This could affect positive PCR test rates too, since fewer people are taking them and they are not based on random sampling. It's a good reason to pay more attention instead to wastewater signals, which are not looking good.

The good news is that Arizona hospital beds and deaths are still in the green. This aligns with what public health officials are saying about things at the national level, i.e. that we are seeing a "substantial" increase in cases, with most of those so far avoiding hospitalization. 

They recommend that people return to safety protocols like wearing a mask and avoiding crowded indoor gatherings. Gah, just in time for restaurant week! 🤬

Be careful out there.

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