New Variants We Can Worry About

 

These last few weeks have been a relief. I've reduced masking a lot and have felt better about going out to eat (though still only outside).  

Still, I've been waiting for the BA.2/"stealh" Omicron shoe to drop and force me back into January-style behavior again. Yesterday the CDC said it makes up almost three quarters of the variants detected in infected people in the U.S. 

It is spreading rapidly in China, but that is different from the U.S. because so few people in China have been infected or vaccinated with an effective vaccine. On the other hand it is spreading like wildfire in Europe, which is not so different from the U.S. 

Experts are thinking it probably won't cause a severe wave here in the U.S. I sure hope they are right.

Unfortunately there are other variants brewing. They are recombinant strains, produced when two variants infect the same person and share generic material.

One is called XE. It is a combo of BA.1 and its cousin BA.2, and is more contagious than the latter. The WHO says in a recent report that: “Early-day estimates indicate a community growth rate advantage of ~10% as compared to BA.2, however this finding requires further confirmation.” They note that such confirmation may be a challenge because testing has dropped off so much.

The UK Health Services Agency issued a recent report that included two other variants, XD and XF. Both are "deltacron" strains, recombinants of Delta and Omicron. 

XD seems not to be taking off. It hasn't been detected in the UK. It has been detected in France, Denmark, and Belgium, but "the most recent collection date is 13 March 2022." 

XF is another "deltacron" strain. According to the report it is also not looking like a winner. It was detected in January and February in the UK. But "given the lack of evidence for recent UK samples from this lineage it is unlikely to be associated with sustained community growth."

Let's hope all these variants are duds and the worst of the pandemic is behind us. I find it hard to be optimistic that we're really out of the woods given all the waves we have been through so far.

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