AZ Pandemic Numbers Summary for the Seven Days Ending April 20: Mostly Stable with Some Early Warning Indicators Up

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending yesterday:


Let's begin with some notes about the table. I have dropped the fully vaccinated percentage and rank among states. That has not changed basically since August and won't change by much more than +0.1% per week. As noted before, how that 0.1% keeps tricking in every week mystifies me.

In place of those rows I have added ones for Sonora Quest positive test percentage, and—now that it looks like there is a reliable source of data—wastewater values for Tempe, Pima, and Yavapai counties. These are what experts agree we have left as early warning indicators.

The caveat here is that these data are delayed. Sonora Quest posts every couple days (but did not today, so far), and the BioBot data are a week behind. So are the Tempe values, but they have not yet posted values from last week for some reason, so I'm not yet listing any current or change values for Tempe.  If Sonora Quest or Tempe updates their dashboard over the next couple of days I will post an update.

Finally, I have added for each measure the highest value so far in 2022. This is so we can put current values in context.

That said, everything looks good except for one thing: Yavapai County wastewater values. The most current (week-old) value is up by a large amount and sets a new 2022 high reading. The county includes the Prescott area and I can tell you from personal observation they're not big on mitigation measures up there. We shall keep an eye on the situation and see if lagging indicators start ticking-up in Yavapai.

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