AZ Pandemic Numbers Summary for the Seven Days Ending March 9: Back to July 2021 Levels

 

Here are the Arizona pandemic numbers and and graph of statewide cases for the seven day period ending yesterday:



Except for a fractional percent increase in deaths, everything continues to look good. The seven-day average of cases shown in the graph is comparable to levels last seen in mid-july last year when Delta was just cranking up. The curve appears to be continuing downward, so in another week we might be back to spring 2021 levels. 

I take the Maricopa county numbers with a grain of salt. For one thing, the cases per 100K are reported "for the most current calendar week of data 02/27-03/05." So the numbers are lagged by five days.

Second, I divide the number they list (55) by seven to get a seven-day average. It seems like an awfully big drop from last week, though not an impossible one.

Third, none of their numbers line up with their "community transmission indicators." On a detail page they say total new cases per 100K in the range of 0-9 is low, 10-49 is moderate, 50-99 is substantial, and 100+ is high. But they don't say if those levels are based on a week's total or a seven-day average.

They list 55 cases per 100K. If their categories are based on a week's cases, that number would put us in the "substantial" category. If they are based on a seven-day average, it would put us in the low category (percent positive tests is in that category too). Yet they list the current level as medium.

I'm going to reach out to them to find out what is going on and will post back to this blog if I get a response.

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