We are Facing Another Pandemic Marshmallow Test


 

Almost a year ago I blogged about the governors failing a marshmallow test by rushing to end pandemic restrictions.  It was a reference to a famous study done Stanford about self-control in kids. Basically it looked at kids' ability to forego a small immediate reward for a double reward after a delay.

For context, at that time we were coming off a third wave of the virus (graph via Google/NYT):

For the most part it was the usual-suspect COVIDiot governors in places like Texas, Mississippi, and Arizona who took this as a green light to end all pandemic restrictions. But there were other liberal states like Massachusetts who did the same (maybe other places too).

I compared this to failing the marshmallow test because public health officials were saying it was too soon. As you probably remember and can see from the graph, they were right. Later that year we encountered a new Delta wave, followed by an Omicron wave.

Now history is repeating itself. Republicans are demanding an end to the federal pandemic state of emergency. This is hardly surprising, but Democratic governors are also getting in on the act. This is putting pressure on the Biden administration to fall in line.

But the administration is resisting these calls. It is sticking with its pledge to follow guidance of the public health professionals who are telling people not to eat the marshmallow and wait a little while to get two marshmallows. It's deja vu all over again.

They have been talking about this on NPR over the last few days. The narrative is yes, from a public health point of view it is too early to end restrictions, but these politicians have political considerations too.

Sigh. This is why we can't have nice things. 

People—me included—are sick and tired of the pandemic. But you can't just say that because of this we wave a wand and it's all over over now. 

What worries me is that they will lift all these restrictions, then some new variant that's as contagious as Omicron but as pathogenic as Delta—like Deltacron, for eample—will hit us. Then all the restrictions will have to come back and people will be really pissed.

In my humble opinion, it's better to resist that marshmallow now and hang on just a little longer to see if we can't get two when the pandemic really goes away.

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