AZ Pandemic Numbers Summary for the Week Ending January 29: Over the Hump

 


Here is the Arizona pandemic numbers summary and graph of seven-day average of new cases for the week just ended*:


Case rates are in the green both statewide and in Maricopa County. The graph shows we topped out on January 24 and are coming down. That's almost exactly when the modelers predicted it would happen.

The only cautionary note is that during the Delta wave there was a false peak at the end of August after which  things seemed to be coming down, only to ramp back up and surpass that rate a little in early December. 

Let's hope that doesn't happen again because of the "stealth" Omicron. It has been detected in Arizona and is estimated by Danish researchers to be 50% more transmissible.

If we have passed the peak, it was some peak. Previously, the worst seven-day average for Arizona was in January 12, 2021 at 9,808 cases. The peak on January 24, 2022 was 20,778, more than two times higher!

Deaths are in the red. The media are freaking out about it. But it's entirely predictable that if you double the previous record for cases you're going to set records for deaths too, at a lag of a few weeks. 

We can see the trend in the dual-axis graphs for this week, and we can expect it to continue for at least a few weeks. Hospital beds seem to be tracking cases pretty closely, as we would expect:



* Unless otherwise noted, data are retrieved from the ASU Biodesign Dashboard


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