AZ Pandemic Numbers for the Week Ending January 1: Welcome to the Omicron Wave

 

Here is the Arizona pandemic numbers summary for the week just ended:


I've been wondering for some time now where our Omicron surge was. Well...BAM!  

As of Friday ASU's lab was reporting 87% of tests with the s-gene dropout, which indicates Omicron. Both the statewide and Maricopa County case numbers have essentially doubled over the last week. 

The new wave is also indicated by the skyrocketing seven-day average of cases:

And as I noted on Friday, the case numbers are likely undercounted because people are not reporting results of at-home tests. Experts suggest we need new metrics because of this.

Accordingly, I have added new rows to the table to track the change in deaths per 100K for the state and Maricopa County. These data contain some possibly good news. 

Both death rates are up a little over the month but down a little over the week. COVID-19 hospital beds are down over both periods. 

This is consistent with the growing belief that Omicron is not as pathogenic as Delta. However, we should keep in mind that these numbers tend to lag the case numbers.

Some experts are saying that we should expect increases in the bad outcomes because more cases mean more chances for serious disease. Others say we may not see it because vaccines still protect against serious illness. We'll see who's right in a week or two.

Bye-Bye Accelerometer

I have retired the Vaccination Accelerometer. It has been essentially flat since the beginning of August, so there is no point continuing it. Arizona's vaccination rate has sucked and will continue to do so. We don't need a chart to tell us that.

That said, there is a consistent drip of people getting jabbed each week. I really wonder who these people are who are getting vaccinated this late in the game and what changed their minds. 

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