The Latest on Omicron

 


A week ago I blogged about the Omicron variant, urging everybody not to panic while the experts figure out what is going on. Here are a few updates suggesting that was a good approach.

Who is Getting It

As of a week ago, Omicron had been detected in 24 countries. In the US it has been detected in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, Washington and Wisconsin.

Strangely, there is also evidence that the virus is mostly infecting younger people. Data from South Africa shows that 80% of hospital admissions were among people younger than 50, a marked departure of from the picture with Delta. Experts caution that this could be because of lower vaccination rates in that age group in South Africa, however.

More Contagious but Milder Disease

There is pretty good evidence that Omicron spreads more easily than Delta. Cases in one South African province are doubling every day.

The good news is that indications continue that Omicron produces milder disease than Delta. The Independent has a good summary of what health care professionals are saying. Patients are not reporting loss of smell/taste and they are not seeing drops in blood oxygen levels. Few of them are being admitted to hospitals. Symptoms are more cold-like, with muscle aches, scratchy throat, and a dry cough.  

These conclusions are based on anecdotal reports rather than systematic research, which will take more time. But there are a lot of anecdotal reports of this kind, so that should help reduce our worry level.

How it Evolved

Experts are trying to figure out how Omicron evolved.  Here is an excellent piece laying out the possibilities.  Its genetic tree shows that its closest relatives are strains that circulated a year ago. It's not related to anything that is circulating now, but has mutated into something vary different from the 2020 strains. 

Two possibilities are that it came from an animal source or it developed in an unmonitored population. Those are unlikely for reasons you can read about in the linked article. 

It's likely that it mutated while incubating in an immunocompromised person, perhaps someone infected with HIV. Their immune system would be strong enough to keep the virus in check but not strong enough to eliminate it, allowing it a long period acquire mutations.

Snippet of Another Virus

Researchers think Omicron acquired one of its mutations by picking up a snippet of genetic material from another virus like the common cold. Apparently this can happen when two viruses invade the same cell. 

The article says it would be adaptive for the Omicron variant because it would make it look "more human" and therefore easier to evade immune responses. I don't really understand that claim though. A cold is not human-like and we have immune responses to colds. If I find out more about this I will update this section.




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