Omicron Updates: Ramping Up in AZ, Burning Out Fast, Antibody Treatments Fail, Looks Like It really Is Less Severe

Today seemed like a good time for an update on the Omicron variant.  

Ramping Up in Arizona?

So it's not totally clear what the Omicron situation is in State 48. Strangely, the GISAID database lists only one sequence for B.1.1.529 (the number assigned to Omicron) in Arizona over the last month.

Next we have the tgen dashboard. That catalogs all the sequences done in the state. As of December 21 they say Omicron represented 1.44% of samples. Since they display results for each month, I assume that is for samples taken between November 23 and December 23. The rest were various flavors of Delta.

Then there is ASU dashboard. For unknown reasons, it hasn't had its circulating variants widget updated since Dec 6. At that time they said 3.16% of sequences were Omicron.

But they also have a chart for "s-gene dropouts."  That is a feature of PCR tests where they fail to detect a particular bit of genetic material. 

It is indicative of only some variants, and the last time it was useful was for detecting the UK variant (Alpha, I think). The virologists note that the test is not definitive and must be backed up with actual sequencing, but with the UK variant it tracked very well.

It does appear to be a marker for Omicron as well.  Here is what the dashboard shows (my chart based on their data):


That indicates that around 60% of cases in Arizona are Omicron, and growing. This is more in line with what we have heard about how quickly it spreads.

So why aren't we getting slammed with cases? The seven-day average of new cases is still showing a downtrend. An epidemiologist I spoke to basically said: "wait for it."

Burning Out Fast?

A nice twitter thread by epidemiologist Trevor Bedford notes that based on its reproduction number (r) we should expect a massive spike in Omicron cases.  Yet in South Africa, the Omicron wave peaked and is quickly falling off, hitting no higher infection rates than Delta.  Here is his chart:

So this thing may not be as big a disaster as people have predicted.

Antibody Treatments Fail

And that's a good thing, because two out of three antibody treatments they have been using to treat infected people seem not to be effective against the Omicron. According to reports, the Eli Lily and Regeneron treatments (the latter of which saved T****'s sorry ass) are ineffective. 

This leaves sotrovimab, made by GlaxoSmithKline, as the only option. Of course this means that the antibody supply is cut by around two-thirds, meaning there are people who need it—primarily unvaccinated COVIDiots—who won't get it. 

Looks Like It Really Is Less Severe

There have been plenty of anecdotal reports that Omicron causes less severe disease. Now data are coming in to back them up. 

Three research teams from South Africa, Scotland and England are reporting that Omicron is less likely to send people to the hospital. The South Africa study pegged the risk reduction at a substantial 70%.

I Was Right!

All this goes to show I was right when I blogged a few weeks ago that we should not get too excited by all the sky-is-falling claims about Omicron.  You're welcome!


 

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