Vaccine Production Ramp-Up: Could Government Actually be Planning for the Future?


Last week the Biden administration said it's planning to ramp up vaccine production capacity to produce at least a billion extra doses per year by the end of 2022. That will be done by investing in companies with experience making mRNA vaccines.

I've not been able to find details about how this investment will work. I'm a little worried that this will be another case of the government investing millions in pharma companies and helping them invent things, only to have them hog all the spoils like Moderna is trying to do now.

This story was framed as a response to pressure to do more for poorer foreign countries, most of which have very low vaccination rates. That makes sense, because those are breeding grounds for new variants that could travel to the U.S. and wreak havoc like Delta has done.

But something else caught my eye in the announcement. White House coronavirus response coordinator Jeff Zients said: "This program would also help us produce doses within six to nine months of identification of a future pathogen and ensure enough vaccines for all Americans."

That seems like an odd thing to add in such an off-handed way, and I wonder if it isn't more of a motivation than the current needs of poor countries. Pandemics are becoming more likely due to factors like global travel, urbanization, climate change, increased human-animal contact, and and health-care worker shortages. 

Deadly pandemics are expected to happen much more frequently than they once were. One study said that in the past, events like the Spanish Flu and SARS-CoV-2 were once expected once every 400 years or so. Now most people can expect to experience one every 59 years.

It's heartening to think the U.S. government might actually be planning for this future. Everyone agrees it did a horrible job of it in the run-up to the current crisis.

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