Very Worrisome AZ Pandemic Numbers for the Week Ending July 17
These are some bad numbers, dear readers. This is the first time since I've been doing this weekly summary (started Jan 17) that any increases on the order shown here have occurred. If this isn't a new surge, its a kissing cousin. Everything is uniformly bad, except percent of population fully vaccinated.
A couple of rows have been removed from the table. I removed S-gene dropouts per 100 tests because the numbers have dwindled—I assume because the Alpha variant is getting crowded-out by Delta.
There are continued problems getting information about percent of sequences that are Delta. For the last two weeks GIDAID has said that there is "no data" for Arizona for the preceding week.
I checked this week for last week's numbers, assuming there had been some reporting hicup. There were only 21 sequences, ten of which were Delta (shown as "1 week eralier" in the chart).
Waaaat? There used to be 100-200 or more sequences per week! I checked into this and heard that T-Gen, which had been doing the lions-share of sequences, stopped doing them. It's unclear why, but it's a good bet that state funding has dried up.
This is probably another facet of the Governor's aggressive public-illness campaign. After all, we have to save money to pay for the Fraudit, which is much more important!
One other change is that on the vaccination numbers I've dropped the percent of people with one shot. I had been estimating that by taking the number of doses, subtracting two times the number fully vaccinated, and showing that as a percent of population with one shot.
I always knew this would be somewhat inaccurate because it doesn't account for people getting one-shot jabs (like J&J). This week the formula was showing a huge decrease in the percent. This is not possible, so I dropped the row. This is probably sensible anyway because one shot of a two shot vaccine is not very effective against Delta.
Here is the accelerometer for this week:
Since I've dropped the one-shot data, I also eliminated it from this chart. This week there has been the largest increase in both shots since inception. The second largest was in the July 3 report, with a plummet on July 10.
I can only assume this is due to more unreliable reporting from ADHS. But even an average of the last four weeks is 2.24% increase per week, which is on par with the best we've done. So there's at least one bright spot.
Top Image by Shutterbug75 from Pixabay
