Arizona's Disappointing Vaccination Percentage and Flattening Curve

 

Every Sunday, Corona-zona posts a weekly summary of pandemic numbers, including the percent vaccinated. So I have been consulting the JHU dashboard every week for months now to get the latest number of doses and number fully vaccinated.

There was a time, I think back in early March, where Arizona rated in the top ten (or so) states for percentage vaccinated (I can't find the exact number because there is no historical data). I was stunned. Arizona is never in the top ten states in any list.  

We're 30th in livability, 31st in health, 46th in education, and 34th in quality of life. Even in an area where I thought we would "excel"—gun ownership—we are in the middle of the pack at 24th (46.3% of Arizonans have guns at home).

Here is a look a the weekly fully-vaccinated numbers since January:

From January to late March, you can see that there is an upward curve to the line, meaning every week we were increasing more than the previous week.  But then starting in late April we can see the line curving in the other direction. 

Now as I learn that half of states have fully vaccinated half of their residents, the latest JHU numbers rank us 35th in percent fully vaccinated.  That's quite a disappointing change from top ten.

It's also worrisome because experts think the tipping point for getting the pandemic under control is 50% fully vaccinated. If the line above keeps going as it has been over the last month, it's easy to see it completely flattening before it ever gets near 50%.

What are state officials doing about it?  Not much, so far as I can tell.  What efforts exist focus on making getting jabbed more convenient.  There are some mobile vaccination efforts to reach underserved communities. There are indoor drive-through vaccination sites. But there are no messaging campaigns I'm aware of, except for some pro-vaccination messages on the electronic signs above the freeways. 

Arizona needs to start thinking about more active measures to incentivize people.  Ohio saw a 53% week to week increase in vaccinations after they entered people getting shots in a $5 million lottery. New York and Maryland are following suit.

Other states are offering incentives like free beers (a shot and a beer!), gift cards, and scholarships.  Alas, a search on "Arizona vaccine perks" only returns information on freebies give out by commercial entities like a free donut or desert, or a $5 gift card for use on Budweiser's website.

The curve is flattening as Arizona is in 35th place. More people have a gun than have a full inoculation. It's time for State 48 to step it up its game with messaging and focus on measures more aggressive than making it more convenient to get jabbed.

Update 11:30

I just heard that our COVIDiot legislature, which tried but failed to ban vaccine passports, and is considering a bill to ban employee vaccination requirements,  is mulling a bill to ban vaccination incentives too. Good idea guys! Very helpful! 

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