Great, This Could Be the Next Pandemic

 

Not to ruin your day or anything, but The Guardian (and other news sites) recently reported that a new strain of avian influenza has been reported in Russia, which for the first time has spread to humans. It has also appeared in poultry in Europe, China, the Middle East and north Africa in recent months.

The strain is an H5N8 variant. The "H5" refers to a particular type of HA surface glycoprotein. This is worrisome. According to a recent study published in the journal Viruses,"[h]umans have no pre-existing immunity to H5 or H7 avian influenza viruses. Thus, if an H5 or H7 virus is introduced into the human population and can spread between people, particularly via the airborne route, it will initiate a pandemic." Awesome!

You may recall that there was a pandemic scare in 2005-2008, when another variant, H5N1 spread like wildfire among birds in Europe, Africa and Asia. Fortunately, that variant never got good at infecting humans and spreading between them.

So far there is no evidence of the H5N8 variant is spreading between humans either. But that could be a matter of luck. All influenza type A variants mutate readily, and it could be only a matter of time before one of these novel flu strains gets into a human and mutates to become contagious to other humans. Then we're off to the races again.

On the PBS Newshour on Feb 22, Bill Gates reminded us that his 2015 Ted Talk warning us we weren't prepared for the next pandemic was based on a fictional influenza pandemic that would kill 30 million people. The COVID-19 pandemic has killed about one-tenth that many people so far. So in theory we could have something that's ten times worse.

Could H5N8 be it? Who knows? But experts believe climate change will accelerate the spread of infectious disease. So, if it's not H5N8 flu or another coronavirus, it could be something else.

My recommendation is, after this pandemic is over don't throw away your masks. Also let's encourage our governments and research institutions wake up and develop testing and prevention measures before the next crisis hits.  

Russia intends to do this with H5N8, according to the Guardian piece. There are also there are universal flu vaccines in development, and clinical trials are looking promising. 

Image by Xuân Tuấn Anh Đặng from Pixabay 

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