Maybe Good News about COVID-19 and Schools?
Reviewing data from March 1 to December 12 of last year, they found that the prevalence of cases decreases with age. Here is a pie chart based on numbers in the report:
Moreover, they found that there doesn't appear to be much difference between infection rates in counties that did offer in-person instructions and those that did not:
As of December 7, nearly two thirds (62.0%) of U.S. kindergarten through grade 12 (K–12) school districts offered either full or partial (hybrid with virtual) in-person learning. Despite this level of in-person learning, reports to CDC of outbreaks within K–12 schools have been limited, and as of the week beginning December 6, aggregate COVID-19 incidence among the general population in counties where K–12 schools offer in-person education (401.2 per 100,000) was similar to that in counties offering only virtual/online education (418.2 per 100,000). Several U.S. school districts with routine surveillance of in-school cases report lower incidence among students than in the surrounding communities.
This is in contrast with another recent conclusion from the CDC that counties with universities have higher disease rates. According to that report, "comparing the 21 days before and after instruction start dates, university counties with in-person instruction experienced a 56% increase in incidence and 30% increase in hotspot occurrence as well as increases in COVID-19-related testing and test percentage positivity."
They note that aggressive random testing programs at universities could have led to increased case discovery, but there is still evidence of increased transmission. Perhaps this isn't surprising give the high number of cases in the 18-24 age group in this week's report.
I take the good news about the K-12 schools with two grains of salt. First, the idea that there is not significant transmission in classrooms flies in the face of common sense and what we think we know about the virus. Classrooms are poorly-ventilated congregate settings. Kids spend hours in these classrooms every day, breathing each other's aerosols (even if wearing masks). It's a bit of a head-scratcher as to why these would not be ideal settings for spread of the virus, while university classrooms are.
Second, the Trump administration pushed very hard over the summer for schools to reopen. At one point the president threatened to cut their funding if they did not reopen. Furthermore, the administration has tried to block or manipulate dozens of other CDC reports. Did the administration bully the CDC into releasing a rosy-scenario regarding K-12 schools? It's a shame we have to ask that, but we do.
Image by Wokandapix from Pixabay
