Corona-zona

  Two updates on testing. Antigen Tests Less Sensitive to Omicron On Wednesday I blogged about the challenges the new Omicron variant is posing for testing. Essentially, you can have antigen tests that are fast and inaccurate or PCR tests that are slow and accurate.  Antigen tests are just barely satisfactory for symptomatic cases (false negatives in 1 of 4 to 1 of 8 tests), and they are basically useless for asymptomatic cases (false negatives in 1 of 2 to 1 of 3 tests). Even that assumes the tests work for Omicron. Well yesterday the FDA announced that antigen tests are less sensitive to Omicron than other variants. They don't have information on how much less sensitive they are but are working to get that info. They are also trying to learn why and think the tests can be adjusted to compensate once they know. Dr. Fauci is quoted in this article: "What the FDA is saying today is that when you look at Omicron and its ability to detect Omicron, some of the tests have a dimin...

  Yesterday my sinuses felt somewhat irritated, my nose was running a little, and I had a little pang that could have been the beginning of a headache. I am fully vaxxed and boosted, so I wondered: Could I have a breakthrough case of the Omicon variant? There is growing evidence that Omicron produces less severe disease. Some people are claiming that it has different symptoms than "classic" COVID-19 too, ones more like a common cold.  Experts warn  that it's too soon to tell if the symptoms are fundamentally different from those associated with Delta. But this doesn't stop people like me from wondering whether any respiratory symptom might be COVID-19. At least four people I know—someone I work with, a friend, and two toddlers of another friend—have  symptoms of mild respiratory illness. They are all worried that they could have COVID-19 and have gotten or are seeking tests. There are many other people in the same boat. Public health practitioners are saying that th...

  On Sunday I noted that Arizona had not yet seen an explosion of cases due to the Omicron, like elsewhere. On Monday I thought there may have been detonation, with AzDHS reporting over 7000 new cases.  But today they're reporting just 1,976 new cases. So it looks like once again we have unreliability due to  delays in reporting cases . Anyway, ASU reported over 70% of tests with s-gene dropouts (explainer here ) yesterday. That means Omicron is definitely taking over in Arizona. So what should you do about testing if you think you're infected? The current choices are antigen tests and PCR tests. Antigen Tests Antigen tests are the kind you can buy (if you're lucky) at the drug store and that you can administer yourself. The tests produce results in 15-30 minutes. That's great if you're trying to catch an Omicron infection because it spreads quickly and you want to stay away from other people if you have it. The problem is that these tests are not very accurate. ...

  Here is the Arizona pandemic numbers summary for the week just ended: Most of the numbers are looking good, except Maricopa County over the last week. As noted on Friday , it's a little surprising we are not yet seeing a surge in cases due to Omicron.  That variant has been present in the state since early December. In other locations its infections have been doubling every couple of days. It is hammering New York right now.   Not so here. Since that time we've been in a downtrend. The curve has flattened out, but is not looking anything like an exponential increase (yet): I'm starting to feel like a broken record, but another week with no progress since August on the vaccine front:

Today seemed like a good time for an update on the Omicron variant.   Ramping Up in Arizona? So it's not totally clear what the Omicron situation is in State 48. Strangely, the  GISAID database  lists only one sequence for B.1.1.529 (the number assigned to Omicron) in Arizona over the last month. Next we have the  tgen dashboard . That catalogs all the sequences done in the state. As of December 21 they say Omicron represented 1.44% of samples. Since they display results for each month, I assume that is for samples taken between November 23 and December 23. The rest were various flavors of Delta. Then there is ASU dashboard . For unknown reasons, it hasn't had its circulating variants widget updated since Dec 6. At that time they said 3.16% of sequences were Omicron. But they also have a chart for "s-gene dropouts."  That is a feature of PCR tests where they fail to detect a particular bit of genetic material.  It is indicative of only some variants, a...

  In my news feed today there appeared an article in Defense One saying that the Walter Reed Army Institute of Research (WRAIR) has developed a new coronavirus vaccine. This one, the article claimed, "is effective against COVID-19 and all its variants, even Omicron, as well as previous SARS-origin" viruses. It is also stable at non-freezing temperatures. According to the article, the vaccine uses something called a spike ferritin nanoparticle. It was described as something like a tiny soccer ball, with different coronavirus spike proteins attached to its panels. It sounds, then, like this is not an mRNA vaccine but something more akin to traditional vaccines.  The unique formulation means that it can theoretically elicit a broad immune response against all kinds of coronaviruses, including SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. Initial tests in animals showed positive results , as have Phase 1 clinical trials in humans. Phase 2 & 3 trials are pending. Walter Reed put out a correct...

  Arizona has earned a few ignoble distinctions lately. They relate to deaths, stressed care systems, and abysmal leadership. On the deaths front, we have two marks of shame. First, Becker's Hospital Review lists Arizona  as having the second highest death rate in the country. Over the course of the pandemic we've had 0.94 deaths per 100K residents, and averaged 68.4 deaths daily. We're exceeded only by Michigan (1.17 & 117.3). Second, over the last year COVID-19 was the leading cause of death in Arizona. It has killed more people than heart disease or cancer. Dr. Joshua LaBaer, executive director of Arizona State University’s Biodesign Institute, pointed out that this doesn't even include people who had conditions that went untreated because our medical system was overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients. Speaking of overwhelmed systems, the Arizona Public Health Association says our hospitals are now in "crisis standards of care." That's because they are f...