AZ Pandemic in Numbers for the Week Ending May 1

 

Here is the Arizona numbers summary for the week just ended:


This week I have added a new number, S-Gene Dropouts per 100 Positives. I calculate this as a seven day average based on data from the ASU Biodesign dashboard. The numbers usually lag by a week. ASU conducts testing not only for its own students and employees but for the community as well.

The S-gene dropout is an assay they do on saliva samples. It detects a marker that is associated with the UK variant of the virus. It is a quicker test than sequencing but it's not perfect. Nonetheless I'm told it's very reliable and its results are usually confirmed when the same sample is sequenced.  

The UK variant is concerning because, according to the CDC, it's about 50% more transmissible than the plain old virus, and based on hospitalizations and deaths it has the potential to cause more severe disease. Luckily, it is not better at evading immune responses.  

In any case, it's a more nasty bug, so it's something the public health people are monitoring. This week 69.5 out of 100 tests had the dropout. So basically, 70% of the positive tests are the UK variant.

The other non-vaccination numbers are headed in the wrong direction. But like the last few weeks, they represent only small increases. It would be better if they were level or decreasing, but there is no indication of a big surge.

Here is the vaccination accelerometer for the past week:

There is a continuing deceleration trend that started at the beginning of last month. Most experts believe this is evidence that we've nearly exhausted the supply of people who are eager to get the shot, and are now focusing on more challenging populations. Let's hope that have success with that.

Top Image by Shutterbug75 from Pixabay

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